Hope in a federal-electoral form

Though most people have abandoned hope in electoral politics, I still cling to the belief that they can bring change and occasionally, good and significant change.

When Stephan Dion got elected to lead the Liberals, I was floored. A massive underdog, he was the only one who I felt was both honest in his intentions and not a media whore willing to do anything to get elected. Even the NDP at their convention said that Dion is honest, committed etc. which is why he would never be elected as leader fo the Libs. OK, he's far from perfect and I'd never vote for him unless the NDP ran a guy like this against him. But Dru, editor-in-chief from the Dominion convinced me that for most Canadians, Dion probably represents their stance on a number of issues: mild committment to the environment, respect for civil liberties and withdrawl from Afghanistan.

As Murray Dobbin argued after Dion won the leadership race, it could be an excellent boon for Canada should the Libs under Dion get into power with a Minority government propped up by the NDP. Under this scenario, some of the best programs in the history of Canada have come about including health care, pensions and other strong state institutions.

Dobbin was quick to back-peddle when the dust settled and he realized that Dion's staff included some of the worst people in Canadian history, however the fact remains that when it comes to action, Dion has been acting like a Social Liberal.

I'm beginning to wonder why that would be? I hope it's because he genuinely believes in some of the things he's ben advocating and voting for, but the fact remains that Dion is a fantastic political strategist as seen by his win in the leadership race. I wouldn't put past him to quickly initiate a series of leftist measures to shore up NDP support before shifting to the right to try to come across as both better than Harper, but respectable enough to leftist voters. Hell, the guy was a disciple of Jean Chretien.

Still, my hope for the Liberal Minority carriers on. A new poll has the Conservatives ahead of the Libs by only 6%, which makes me ecstatic. Though some are spelling the end of the Libs, the latest poll shows them kicking ass in Quebec, where everybody wrote off Dion. As well, I anticipate that Dion has made the Conservatives use up all their gas in order to paint him as weak. Now their support has peaked and Dion is on the counter-attack where the Conservatives normally do best: taxes.

The new poll "shows the Tories with a smaller lead and leaves them well shy of the support level they would need for a majority government". Also, Dion has yet to resort to the Bob Rae tactics of painting Harper as a wolf in sheeps clothing. Rae is his campaign chairman.

But the best wild card of all this is Dion's hard-ass stance on Quebec. Not only is he doing well there, but Quebecers aren't asking for a referendum right now and Dion owns the 'Quebec' issue. Pundits of all stripes have pointed out that if Quebec doesn't elect a Liberal government in a couple weeks that Dion could turn a 2007 election into a 'Quebec-Canada' campaign, where he would destroy Harper.

Polls for Quebec show the Liberals leading, but for the first time, they are indicating a possible Minority government, for the first time in over a 100 years. If that happens, it's likely that the coalition would be between the PQ and the Action-Democratique party which essentially are a right-leaning bunch of assholes. If they get in, watch Quebec politics get even more interesting while Dion could use that to his advantage.